The economist: ‘An editor of The Economist once said: “We are a paper of opinion and views. We stick our neck out and consequently risk having it chopped from time to time.” The oil price has delivered such a blow. At the end of April, almost two months after America and Israel attacked Iran, we said oil traders were in “la-la land” thinking that oil prices would fall to $88 by the end of the year. Today Brent crude costs just over $70 a barrel. Our prediction went about as well as the war.’

And: ‘When we are moderately out-of-consensus, our record is good. Our more outlandish predictions are, unsurprisingly, more likely to be wrong.’

As well: ‘The case for prediction is therefore like the case for free speech. (…) So we will keep on predicting.’

Moderately out-of-consensus better than outlandish predictions?

I’m not sure. Cherish the black swans.

(a sf 2171)