Arnon Grunberg

Attack

Purpose

On Iraq, Israel and the (new) stage for an international war, Zvi Bar'el in Haaretz:

'“Baghdad’s silence on Israeli raids against Iraqi soil raises eyebrows,” read the headline of an article by Iranian journalist Ali Mousavi Khalkhali published on the Iranian website Iran Front Page. His bewilderment was shared by around 80 members of Iraq’s parliament, who urged the government to condemn, or at least respond in some way, to the two strikes attributed to Israel last month – one on the Amirli base in Saladin Governorate and one on the Abu Montazer al-Muhammadavi base in Diyala Governorate, better known as Camp Ashraf.'

(...)

'These two messages revolve around a few central questions: Is Iraq a new Israeli front in its war against the Iranian threat, as implied in press briefings by Israeli intelligence officials? Or is Iraq a hidden ally, which, even if it won’t participate in the war on Iran, also won’t interfere with foreign efforts – Israeli, American or Saudi – to fight Iran on its territory? Even if there’s no clear answer, European diplomats say Israeli officials have been holding secret meetings with Iraqi government officials for some time now. Some of these meetings have even taken place in Israel.'

(...)

'Who, for instance, helped the fighter jets, which in at least one case (according to foreign media reports) were F-35s? When operating in stealth mode and without external fuel tanks, the F-35 doesn’t have the range to reach Iraq from Israel without refueling in midair.
Another question touches upon the long flight path, which presumably passed through Syrian and Iraqi airspace. That would have exposed the planes to Russian and Syrian radar if they weren’t in stealth mode. If they were Israeli planes, they most likely would not have flown via Jordan; Amman would never authorize such a flight, and it would violate Jordanian sovereignty and further disrupt the already tense bilateral relationship between the two countries. This would leave no other choice but to fly over Syria.
In Iraq, meanwhile, the attacks sparked demands that the country purchase anti-aircraft missiles and otherwise improve its air defense systems, which are decades out of date. Members of parliament also demanded that Iraq take back control over the parts of its airspace currently overseen by the United States.
The last question, though, is what purpose the attack served. There’s nothing new about the presence of Iranian Zelzal and Fateh-110 missiles, which have ranges of 200 to 700 kilometers and are capable of hitting Israel. In August 2018, Reuters reported that Iran had been moving dozens of missiles into Iraq for months and had also restarted operations at missile factories in Al-Zafaraniya, east of Baghdad, and Jurf al-Sakhar, near Karbala. The report also revealed the existence of a third missile plant in Iraqi Kurdistan. The factories date back to the days of Saddam Hussein’s rule, but they were revived in 2016.
In May 2019, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo paid a hasty visit to Baghdad to tell Iraq’s prime minister to stop letting Iran bring missiles into the country and to remove the Iranian missiles that were already there. According to several reports, including one that cited former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Alawi, Israel gave Pompeo photographs of the missiles and launch pads, and said in no uncertain terms that it would take action against them if Iraq didn’t remove them itself.'

Read the complete article here.

It was conventional wisdom that the war between US/Israel and Iran would be mainly another Lebanon war, but who knows, maybe the next battleground is once again Iraq.
Another country where civil war and proxy wars can go very well together.

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