Once again, on side effects of the Brexit - Sadhbh Walshe in NYRB:

'At the time of writing, though, as the October 31 deadline looms, there has been no final agreement between London and Brussels—all deal or no deal options remain on the table. The continuing uncertainty has united a divided country in anxiety—hardly the best circumstance in which to open a debate about a radical overhaul of the sovereign status of Ireland and the nationality of its citizens. Yet that conversation is happening, and uncomfortable as it is for many, it may not easily be shut down.

In 2015, a year before the Brexit referendum, the prospect of such fundamental constitutional change in Ireland was not only rarely discussed, it had scant support. A cross-border poll conducted then showed that just 36 percent of people in the Republic of Ireland were in favor of a united Ireland in the short to medium term, and only 30 percent of those polled in the North. Compare those numbers to a recent poll that found 65 percent support in the Republic and 51 percent in the North (although support among Ulster unionists remains minuscule). These numbers represent a considerable change in attitudes toward the country’s future, making it difficult to see how the fragile status quo of partition in Ireland can be maintained for much longer, no matter the Brexit outcome.'

(...)

'Evidence of contemptuous attitudes toward Ireland still held by certain quarters of the British establishment have only spurred the new all-Ireland sentiment: from Boris Johnson’s reported comment when he was foreign secretary about the Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, “Why isn’t he called Murphy like the rest of them?”; to his father Stanley’s dismissal of concerns about the border, “If the Irish people want to shoot each other, they will shoot each other”; to a veiled threat from Home Secretary Priti Patel to starve the Irish into submission if we don’t comply with her government’s agenda. Such statements, combined with almost daily attacks from Britain’s pro-Brexit, right-wing press, have not inspired warm feelings toward Westminster in Ireland. At a time when a hard-won peace process is on the verge of collapse, no one in Ireland is laughing.

For these reasons, several all-island grassroots organizations such as #Think32, Shared Ireland, and Ireland’s Future are suddenly emerging, hosting well-attended conferences and other forums to discuss issues ranging from the economy to national identity, EU membership, and North–South integration. (Academics from London, Belfast, and Dublin have also established a British-led, nonpartisan working group to examine possible means for achieving Irish unification.) Sadly, there has been minimal unionist participation in these discussions, largely because of an understandable fear that the endgame would be a breakup with Britain. But as Patricia MacBride, a lawyer and political analyst from Derry, who is involved in Ireland’s Future, told me, there are a plethora of issues begging for discussion short of unification. “Brexit is not a backdoor to a united Ireland,” she said. “Brexit has kicked the door down and made people look in and see what’s there, and what’s possible.”'

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'The consequence of this breakdown in devolved government is that at this most crucial juncture in Northern Ireland’s recent history, a majority of the population has no effective representation. Sinn Fein has continued its longstanding policy of refusing to take up the seats it wins in the Westminster Parliament, so the only voice speaking on behalf of the people in the all-important Brexit negotiations is the DUP’s. This imbalance has only been exacerbated by a quirk of the election result in 2017, which left the Conservative government (first, under Theresa May’s leadership; now, under Boris Johnson’s) depending for its parliamentary majority on an alliance with the MPs from this right-wing, fundamentalist-Protestant party from Northern Ireland.

The DUP’s views do not even accord with a large part of the unionist community. When I spoke recently with John Kyle, a member of the Belfast City Council and a former interim leader of the Progressive Unionist Party, he told me that unionists are much “more heterogeneous than one would think, listening to the DUP.” And while a majority of unionists favor Brexit and see their natural home within the UK, rather than inside the EU, he agreed that there is a substantial minority deeply opposed to it.

Since the referendum, there has, in fact, been a surprising surge in Irish passport applications from Northern Ireland Protestants. (Under the Good Friday Agreement’s provisions, which created a certain degree of shared sovereignty, anyone born in Northern Ireland is entitled to hold either an Irish or a British passport, or both.) The sudden flurry of applications has more to do with retaining eligibility for various EU programs and maintaining easy access to holidays in Spain than with any new-found fervor for an Irish identity, but it does demonstrate that while many unionists recoil at the idea of the North’s joining the rest of Ireland, they’re willing to make this compromise to their “Irishness” in order not to lose their EU citizenship.'

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'Tony Macaulay, an author of several books about growing up during the Troubles, who has worked in peacebuilding and community development in several post-conflict societies, including his native Belfast and Rwanda, is far from sanguine. “In Rwanda, after a genocide where a million people died, there’s a level of forgiveness and reconciliation taking place that is far beyond what we’ve achieved in Northern Ireland,” he told me. Indeed, although the infrastructure of the Troubles has long been dismantled, and British soldiers no longer patrol the streets, miles of so-called peace walls remain in place, primarily in the cities of Belfast and Derry. These security barriers are found predominantly in working-class areas, perpetuating the segregation of the most socially deprived segment of each community, nationalist and unionist, from each other.'

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'A related dilemma involves the increased number of Irish passport-holders living in the North. As unionists’ applications for Irish passports increase—trends suggest there will soon be a majority of Irish passport-holders in Northern Ireland, if there isn’t already—after Brexit there will be a large number of EU citizens living in what will likely be non-EU territory. In other words, this will create an entire new class of EU citizens who will not have full access to their EU rights. Another complicating factor is that the Irish government may have to assume greater responsibility for these Irish (and EU) citizens living on non-EU soil. Already the Dublin government has pledged to cover the costs (estimated at 4 million euros per year) of the European Health Insurance Card for Irish citizens living in the North. (This is a permit that guarantees EU citizens access to state-funded healthcare while traveling in other EU countries.) However the border question is eventually settled, no doubt many other similar EU-related issues will emerge that have not yet been considered.'

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'Comments from the Irish Taoiseach that a new Ireland would require a new constitution reflecting a broader identity are promising. Of course, unionists may simply want none of it, in which case a toxic cycle will continue for another generation, with a growing risk that the delicate compromises of the Good Friday Agreement will break down and a resurgence of sectarian violence may ensue. But there is reason to hope that at least some on both sides of the Northern divide would be willing to engage. The Irish gift for talk could hardly find a better purpose.'

Read the article here.

Ahead of possible Irish reunification - after German reunification it's really time for Irish reunification - I would like to offer a modest proposal:

The Irish government should offer citizenship to British citizens who oppose Brexit. Call it European birth right.