Arnon Grunberg

Slim

Achievement

On deliberations - Yossi Melman interviewing Ex-U.S. Intel Director James Clapper:

‘How close was Israel during the Obama administration to attacking Iran -- between 2010 and 2018? “I don’t know about such sensitive Israeli internal deliberations. I know it was an aspiration; actually executing such an attack is quite another matter.” Was it a mistake to sign the nuclear deal of July 2015? “At the time of the implementation of the JCPOA, I was supportive. It permitted unprecedented surveillance and monitoring of Iran’s nuclear facilities. No other nation-state had ever agreed to such an intrusive apparatus as Iran did. Once we backed out of the agreement [during the tenure of President Trump], its utility declined. At the time, we thought the agreement would give us at least a year’s break-out time [to an Iranian bomb]. Now that margin of safety, I believe, is gone.” Did Israel under Netanyahu try to sabotage the negotiations before the deal was clinched? “Sabotage is a strong word; I know that he was opposed to it, and I had one personal interaction with him, and he made it abundantly clear where he stood.”’

(…)

‘How you think this war has to end. What would be considered an Israeli victory? “Great question; only Israel knows the answer, not me. I suppose what they consider the complete destruction of Hamas, which will, I believe, inevitably mean the destruction of Gaza.” What would be considered a U.S. military and/or diplomatic achievement in the war? “If somehow a path forward on a real two-state solution emerges from this, that would be a great achievement. I think, unfortunately, the prospects for that are slim.”’ (…)

‘Do you think, like former Mossad chief Tamir Pardo, who I am sure you know, that the number one priority of Israel should have been to release the hostages even in exchange for releasing all Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails? I do know Tamir and have great respect for his insight and wisdom. I don’t think it’s my place to pontificate about what Israel’s priorities should be.’

Read the article here.

Anybody who even only superficially followed the news knows that for Netanyahu and his government, probably also for the army, the attempt to reinstate deterrence is more important than the prisoners.

As to the future of Gaza, other journalist have pointed out that it’s probable that Gaza will become like parts of Syria. A place where with the help of the international community people will (merely) survive. No reliable government will be in place. Which is not to say that Hamas was even close to becoming a reliable government.

The northern part of Gaza resembles probably German cities like Hamburg and Dresden in the spring of 1945.
But the Wirtschaftswunder is far away in Gaza. Also, because the exchange prosperity for the abandonment of national aspirations didn’t work out in Gaza, and will not work out.
(The Germans in ’45 were needless to say ready for such an exchange.)

Then it will be waiting for the next disaster.

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