Arnon Grunberg

Voting system

Risk aversion

The Free Democrats in Germany (FDP) are presently not very popular, for rather good reasons. Last Sunday they just got 3.3% in Bavarian State Elections, below the five percent hurdle, but to put things in perspective in 1982 the Free Democrats got just 3.54% in Bavaria. (In 1982 the CSU got an amazing 58.28%, after all this is Bavaria.)
I would still bet that the Free Democrats make it past the five percent hurdle next Sunday, when national elections will take place in Germany. Not because I like the Free Democrats so much, but because of the rather complicated voting system in Germany where you have two votes, one for your local candidate and one for the party you support.
Risk aversion among German voters (the Free Democrats made it past the five percent hurdle every national election in Germany after 1945) will help the Free Democrats. After all, the electorate needs a party in the national parliament to despise.

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